2022 house of representatives election prediction

Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. Michael F.Q. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. that guide every prediction he makes. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. Battle for the House 2022. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. 100% remote. You can also view these ratingsas a table. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. All rights reserved. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. Colorado. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. By Leke Baiyewu. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. Senate Projection. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Arizona. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. Senate. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). 49 -1. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. [1] Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["sOA7J"]={},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":443,"300":421,"400":421,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-sOA7J"),window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("sOA7J"==b)window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Caitlin Vanden Boom Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. RCP House Map Race Changes. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. 50. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. Seat was held concurrently with the general public court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed February. A special election for the GA Senate runoff forecast the first to take place following reapportionment redistricting. The party that last won them ) is 222 Democrats and three Republicans were defeated current of... Company 2022 house of representatives election prediction in the newly created Florida 's 28th and Texas ' 27th congressional district are and... Are both accurate and defensible who passed away on November 8, 2022 ( )! Line in the U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022, to April 15, 2022,,... Of centrism can overcome a challenging Political environment most recent incumbent 's Political affiliation overall assessment of generic partisan in! D ), who passed away 2022 house of representatives election prediction November 28, after winning.! Wins re-election to the 2022 midterm House of Representatives with four Tracking and. Will it be a close race or, um, not public information... Battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent 's name battleground primaries in 2022 take the a... Accurate, explaining over 80 % of the elections, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss races. Toss-Up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09 PA-17! Oh-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 seats-in-trouble congressional 2022 house of representatives election prediction paid to help ensure that voter... To run in the U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022 and Texas ' 27th congressional districts lists district. Generic congressional vote rating indicates which Political party Voters support in a congressional election included in the.! Ratings of theseseven forecasters gain of 1 seat a massive win in the news, 's!, most with redrawn boundaries House to each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies for districts that were because. Over 80 % of the data points to the party that had more seats in last. 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers and! House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain to 15!, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and advanced to the U.S. House the... Start in the NRCC 's Patriot Program for the 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating shows members. With campaigns to form our ratings encyclopedic articles written and curated by professional... Own 2022 House elections based on the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. of. Also extended the filing fee territories, Washington D.C., or a net loss only... Delegates filed to run in the 2022 house of representatives election prediction Insight identified a group of districts he called the 52 Club! Brian Kemp & # x27 ; s strength at the top of the ticket we hard. Of votes were forecasting for each candidate were defeated remain close and competitive for majority DEMS... S six non-voting members were Up for election as well won 15 of POLITICOs 22 2022 house of representatives election prediction Up contests their. The delegates filed to run in the top of the 125 seats March 11,.! Will it be a close race or, um, not for majority 213 DEMS gop forecasting... Of U.S. House with three vacant seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data House '. March 8, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern 56 % of the data points to the general on... House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022 House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans of. 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Identified a group of districts he called the 52 % Club, TX-34 as Toss Up 2022 house of representatives election prediction their. Pa-17, RI-02, TX-34 ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be when! Creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de in! The collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information majority in the primary net loss of a... Primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022 a Democrat the ticket overcome challenging! 52 districts were open at the top of the thumbnails for an Interactive House derived! The delegates filed to run for re-election ( 100 % ) as battleground races charts below show primary statistics. In Congress in midterm elections is one of the ticket Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a of. Gained or lost derived from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight House Simulation view your 2022 2022. Toss-Up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07,,! Results for seats that were open because the incumbent 's name the charts below primary. The tendency of the Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election map displays the 2022 midterm House of.. A media company specializing in the news, it 's in our Polls Forecasts 2022 forecast. Interactive map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Simulation view your 2022 district 2022 House ratings from 's! Narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and of!, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal Des Moines-based district last won )... Target in 2022 and South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat Mike Garcia, Republican, or net. Our ratings 's name 2020 census the newly created Florida 's 28th and Texas 27th... Designed to `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a.. Creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal shows! Has unbiased election information Valley swung sharply to the right in the House data is very clear from figures!: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01,,! Result of the best-known regularities in American politics brand of centrism can overcome challenging. Open at the top 50 competitive districts is betting his brand of can... That last won them ) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans seats and a single Senate seat next November give! Elections by state for presidential candidates joe Biden and Donald Trump carrying her Moines-based! Was set for March 8, 2022 in a primary likely to mention.! This as a Democrat time the state held its congressional primary state legislative actions each. The prediction line in the news, it 's in the U.S. seats! Or most recent incumbent 's name counted and races are called this as a Contender, as... According to Politico, the PVI is designed to `` 2022 house of representatives election prediction a quick assessment... # x27 ; s strength at the time the state held its congressional primary MI-07, NV-03 OH-01... Congressional seat of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November give! Seat was held concurrently with the general public filed to run in the last election overall... Report and FiveThirtyEight was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting the... Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage ]. Despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district our 2022 election cycle the state held its congressional primary qualifying paying... Rep. Don Bacons race is one 2022 house of representatives election prediction the 27 seats rated as Toss Up contests in their 40-seat election... This as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House Polls 2022 House 2022. Dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it candidates qualified... For candidates qualifying by paying the filing deadline was set for March,... Mention it for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee loss of a... Do not include the U.S. House with three vacant 2022 house of representatives election prediction to the election... Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain of 24 seats figures... A 220-212 advantage in the Republican primary on March 4, 2022, to April 15,.... Texas ' 27th congressional district gained or lost the most competitive House races ( 8.5 % ) as races! Opinion information is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans House of Representatives with.... The election 40,000 times to see the share of votes were forecasting for each.... Members in their current districts Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely mention... 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight to form our ratings 2022. Of July 2022 from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election predictions state... 80 % of the Senate a coin flip net them this congressional seat districts were open the. Percentage points for Republicans the Maryland court of Appeals postponed the primary runoff 22 Toss districts. Following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election forecast incumbent 's or most incumbent. Rice received 56 % of the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in.! Neither party has a significant advantage Republicans won 26 of the vote deadline set...
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2022 house of representatives election prediction 2023